A new paper by Maclean and Wilson in the journal PNAS compares threat of extinction, as documented by IUCN Red List data on recent changes in population and range size, with that predicted by previous studies that used models to predict the potential effects of climate change on extinction. The study is the most comprehensive to date in terms of examining data for a wide range of species worldwide. Observed extinction probabilities were similar to those predicted by models. The authors conclude that climate change:
“at least ranks alongside other recognized threats to global biodiversity…rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many populations, reducing the ability to resist and recover from other environmental stressors. Our metaanalysis showing high predicted levels of extinction, backed up by consistent data for changes that have already occurred, shows the need to give climate change high priority in conservation planning and to communicate its potentially wide-ranging consequences to policy makers and the wider public.”
The full article is available here.